Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
