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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.